The club marches on, including a new ticker symbol — ULEI — on the OTC Bulletin Board.

Delisting obviously isn’t fatal, and it certainly isn’t permanent. However, the club will have to rethink its plans now that it no longer can count on the money it was expecting to raise during the offering.

2010 was supposed to be a turnaround year for the industry, but it still seems to be feeling its way along the bottom.

Am I the only thinking that this can all be interchangeable? UE is already three distinct clubs, with reciprocity between them.

Why can’t UE launch an equity club that allows travel between the equity club and the three existing UE clubs? It would make it an easier sell in the beginning, so it can add new wholly-owned properties at the dictated membership growth pace, yet still offer the portfolio of Premiere, Signature, and Elite for immediate travel? The three non-equity club members can also benefit from the equity additions through similar reciprocity.

A points-based club can also be used as an overlay. I imagine that a points-based club may be a more value-conscious offering, but it too could benefit from having well over a hundred properties at its disposal from the beginning.

There may be some legal loopholes to make it all happen, but it would be an easy way for UE to scale quickly. There are only a handful of players in the equity niche. Abercrombie & Kent is the leader. Equity Estates is the hungry secondary player. Clearly there is room for yet another meaty foe, so why Ultimate Escapes? And why not sooner rather than later?

Ritz-Carlton finally announced its entry into the market.

The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club is an equity-based luxury travel program where Members select either a Home Club Membership which provides a titled residence and usage at a property they can return to every year, or a deeded Portfolio Membership which affords the opportunity to discover a wide variety of locations and experiences.

In other words, it’s not a pure destination club as it borrows liberally from destination clubs, fractional residence clubs, and timeshares to arrive at its product. It will be the point-based — like Disney Vacation Club. It will offer deeds — like many timeshares. It will offer equity — like Abercrombie & Kent on the DC side.

If history is any kind of teacher, existing clubs may tweak their models to fall into what the public will now expect destination clubs to be and offer. What remains to be seen is if Ritz-Carlton will go on a shopping spree, to quickly build up its critical mass before someone else does. It would also help Ritz-Carlton acquire some homes, since at the moment its portfolio appears to consist mostly of Ritz-Carlton resorts and retreats. That may work for hotel and timeshare buffs, but the thousands of existing destination club members expect larger stand-alone properties that are truly unique and can’t be booked without joining. 

Learn more about the Ritz-Carlton Destination Club here.

How’s the spouse? I’m asking only because the allure of destination clubs comes mostly from the availability of large, luxury vacation properties. Nearly all destination club members are likely married or living with someone special, many with families to take along on the unforgettable treks that clubs — at their best — can offer.

So, I have to ask again — how is that special someone in your life coping if you happen to be a member in one of the languishing or obliterated clubs? It’s not an easy question because odds are that you both didn’t arrive at the destination concept on independently. One of you probably read about it in a magazine, newspaper, or blog — or maybe you saw an online ad — and checked it out before suggesting it to your spouse.

If so, and your club has gone under, make sure you don’t play the blame game or your relationship may go bankrupt too. Financial concerns can be a marriage killer, so it’s important to accept that mistakes are made. You weren’t the only one to join your club. Others came to the same conclusion after their own due diligence. As long as you can survive the shorfall without pointing fingers, I see great vacations in your future.

Clubs can do a better job of monetizing their properties and broadening their brand awareness. I have several suggestions. Some may be outlandish, but there is a grain of logic even in the more far-fetched ideas I’m presenting today.

See if you agree or disagree.

1. Go Hollywood - Destination clubs have amazing homes in amazing locations. It’s just the stuff that movie and commercial shoots need. Major studios pay thousands a day for the right to film in high-end properties with clauses to fix anything that is damaged in the shoot. Clubs should be all over this, especially when it comes to the lull in seasonal properties. Even if a last-minute shoot overlaps with member stays, it would be cheaper to relocate the member to perhaps a superior short-term rental than to go without the film production money.

2. Enroll the homes in luxury vacation rental sites or launch a separate club-owned site, to fill short-term openings - No one likes to see third party guests dish out wear and tear on a club home, but a dormant property is even worse. High-end travelers looking for last-minute getaways can generate incremental revenue and also be prime candidates for new memberships.

3. Reality Television - Travel Channel, HGTV, and perhaps even the Golf Channel would probably eat up a DC-driven reality television show. “Local Host” can follow a different property host every week as he or she goes about interacting with house guests, setting up concierge services, and coping with the daily grind of pampering. The show would do several things like generating brand awareness for the club and also creating interest in potential local host hires.  A more direct cable channel show could be an industry-backed “Destination Clubs” show that profiles different clubs in an entertaining manner without coming off as an infomercial.

4. Get aggressive with affiliate programs - Online lead referral sites like Commission Junction and LinkShare offer cost-effective ways to generate leads beyond the obvious Google AdSense approach. They reach a wider audience, but are action-based instead of simply click-based, so It can be useful in promoting entry-level trial plans and offerings without breaking the bank. Working with real estate professionals as some clubs have is a good low-risk move, but this moves the challenge to travel site webmasters and travel bloggers who really now how to promote a product and have more street cred.

Oh, I have far more than four ways, but I’ll leave it here for now.

Rather than look back at the year that was, let’s take a look at how 2009 will play itself out. I have a few predictions. Let me know what you think.

1. Consolidation will continue, at the hand of the hospitality giants

It’s inevitable. The shakeout of weaker clubs started last year and will continue until either the economy improves or just the self-sustaining operators are left. This is the kind of environment that is ripe for sector consolidation, but who will do the buying when the credit markets are tight? By the end of the year, you will see the fractional and interval giants like Ritz-Carlton, Marriott, and Disney swooping in. They want into this sector, and it’s going to be a lot cheaper to buy an established club with a dedicated member base to learn the industry from the inside out than to start from scratch. 

2. Deposit hikes are history, for now

Remember the days when fast-growing clubs would hike their initial deposit fees to shake potential members off the fences they were straddling? That is unlikely to happen in the near-term. Clubs will simply move to temporary promotional incentives or offer to grandfather new members in with old perks as a way to rattle observers into action.

3. The 3-to-1 member redemption ratio will be toast 

During its glory days — circa anything leading up to the summer of 2008 — clubs could get away by offering to redeem exiting members on the resignation list once three new members signed up. That won’t work on either end these days. Resignations are likely to pile up in a recession. New memberships will be harder to come by. Some clubs have supposedly been quietly implementing a 1-in, 1-out plan to help clear up the bottleneck at the exit turnstile. Now that clubs are shoring up their annual fees and slashing expenses to be self-sustaining enterprises, it makes sense that the new member to resignation ratio go to 2-in, 1-out, or even 1-in, 1-out.

4. More clubs will follow Ultimate Escape’s lead in creating luxury hotel and resort partnerships

Cutting overhead will mean increasing the member-to-property ratio. The solution to avoiding frustrating availability levels will be deals where clubs broker great rates to have members exchange their plan nights at third party destinations. The entire luxury travel industry is smarting, so everyone wins in that scenario. Clubs will also ramp up the use of seasonal rentals for peak travel periods.

5. There will be more failures, but the industry will close out 2009 stronger than it started

There will be more failures in the industry. Some will get scooped up by larger players, while others will not. However, real estate prices should stabilize by year’s end. This doesn’t mean that prices will head higher. That aspect of the DC model is toast for at least several more years. However, new memberships will begin trickling in once the dust settles and bigger names move in to validate the industry while educating the country on the concept. Larger clubs will introduce concepts like club-financing at attractive rates, broadening the reach of the market. It will be a bumpy 2009, but it will be worth it in the end.

Again, these are just predictions. If I’m way off on some — or all — of these, blame my crystal ball.

However, the real head-turner during the presentation was the likely introduction of smart card technology in 2009. Members would be given customized cards that can be scanned (either RFID-based or scanned bars) to completely personalize the home. The member’s favorite music would go on, the temperature would be pre-set at the desired thermostat reading, the lighting levels would be adjusted, and — the gee whiz part — is that snapshots that the members uploaded through the member website would then be popping up on the flat screen televisions. I imagine adding digital picture frames would be no-brainers too.

It may not seem like much to those who prefer to set everything up the old-fashioned way. However, it’s going to be a great selling point for clubs to deliver an experience that no ritzy hotel chain or luxury rental can match.

The club has its reasons too, of course. Smart home technology will allow the club to monitor the home remotely. When the property is vacant, the club can make sure that thermostats adjust properly and that automated window blinds close to keep out sunlight. It’s also beneficial for security purposes. It doesn’t hurt that the “green” thing to do is also the economically prudent thing.

Either way, the destination club concept may not just be forward-thinking in luxury travel but home technology too.

Lusso seemed to be on the fast track of growth — just like High Country Club — before falling victim to the triple-whammy of falling real estate prices, tightening credit markets, and the cascading financial markets that make disposable income so less disposable these days.

It is important to point out that this is Chapter 11 (reorganization) and not Chapter 7 (liquidation). Save for losing out on some real estate in Anguilla, apparently, the club will continue operating with business as usual as creditors dictate its fate.

The industry obviously did not need this. A pair of prolific buckling speedsters isn’t going to help sway any fence-straddling potential destination club industry members to dive in. Consolidation would have been much better. Surely Exclusive Resorts could have made room for Lusso under better circumstances.

As it stands, with HCC and now Lusso, it appears that the industry’s biggest players are either letting the shakeout take place or have enough to worry about internally to take on companies with deteriorating financials.

Lusso has always been one of my personal favorites on the scene. It gets high marks from me for its polished website, detailed floor plans, and virtual tours. I hope it is able to get everything cobbled back together and grow again, but before any of that happens real estate prices need to stabilize.  Now that even Hank Paulson is committed to that goal, we may be closer to the bottom than anyone may realize. Let’s hope so.

Ultimate Escapes is in a position to help.

Forget a buyout. High Country Club supposedly owes more on their properties than they are currently worth in resale, and the CEO’s stern warning that liquidation of the club won’t likely leave any funds to repay member deposits implies that acquiring members is also a liability.

However, as the new entry-level destination club (with High Country Club temporarily ceasing the marketing of new memberships), Ultimate Escapes is in a great position to offer disenchanted HCC members another way out.

The proposed new HCC dues to keep the club afloat are within spitting distance of what Ultimate Escapes Premiere is charging. Once you factor in the more DC-centric features of Ultimate Escapes (greater booking flexibility, lack of exit cleaning fees, the presence of a local host to tackle grassroots problems, serve as concierge, and stock requested groceries) it’s arguably a better deal.

The rub, of course, is that High Country Club members are unlikely to fork over new deposits to a second club. The negative equity of HCC makes UE unlikely to take on members with a lack of deposit funds.

However, if — and only IF — the HCC Success Plan falters, why doesn’t UE take in the HCC members with “dues only” memberships?

UE has the same problem that all of its peers have at the moment. Membership growth has stalled. In fact, going by UE’s own marketing materials, one can deduce that several of the Private Escapes members (in the dozens, since recruitment emails to the public have gone from touting a club with “1400 members” in mid-August to “more than 1300 members” today) decided not to stick around after the merger with Ultimate Resorts to form Ultimate Escapes.

In other words, Ultimate Escapes could use more members. Since every club’s goal these days is to bump up occupancy levels, it also makes better sense to take on new “dues only” members than to unload properties. 

I know. Dues pay for maintenance fees but deposits pay for new homes. Taking on SOME of the HCC members won’t bankroll new properties. It doesn’t have to, as long as the move wins over “dozens” of HCC members instead of “hundreds” — which in of itself wouldn’t be a bad problem to have.

The beauty, of course, is that UE can offer HCC members the “dues only” memberships for a limited time. Let’s say, for instance, it offers folks who can confirm that they were HCC members a “dues only” deal for the next 2-3 years. At that point they would have to pay a deposit to continue as members. This would give HCC members a sampling of the club and it would also give UE bodies to ride out the near-term slump.

It’s a win-win, and that’s rare these days.

I’m hoping somebody does, if only to take a hit for the team so the industry doesn’t have to go through the whole Tanner & Halley fiasco in winning back consumer credibility.

And by taking “a hit for the team” I don’t mean that HCC wouldn’t be a great collection of properties and members. It would. The problem is that it’s unlikely that a rational club would buy in. Since the mortgage holders are owed more than the properties are worth, it would be cheaper for any club to just buy new properties instead of inheriting homes that are underwater. Dues-paying members are great to have, but most clubs would have to jack those dues to make it commensurate with what current members are paying in their own clubs. Perhaps more importantly, is that they would be acquiring members who have expectations of getting their deposits back with the acquiring club not getting anything in return.

After Ultimate Resorts acquired the T&H properties in bankruptcy, it offered its members the ability to join the club, with the expectation that they would get most of their original deposit back if they stuck around for another 5-7 years. The math made sense on Ultimate’s part at the time, becasue it had a ton of new properties and needed bodies to fill them. I don’t know if a club would make such a generous offer this time around. It costs plenty to acquire a new member, but clearly not the amount of any initial deposit.

So what’s it going to be? Is someone going to step up and take a hit for the team? Steve Case? Are you angling for karma points?